Talk by Kei Sataka (Ritsumeikan University, Graduate School of Economics) at the DIJ Business & Economics- and Social Science Study Group, which is intended as a forum for young scholars and Ph.D. candidates in the field of Business and Economics - and Social Science Studies.
This paper argues that the expectation of future care for aging parents may be a major factor contributing to the current low fertility rate in Japan. Using data from the 1998 and 2008 National Family Research of Japan (NFRJ) surveys and a Poisson-logit hurdle model, this paper examines whether the expectation of having to look after parents in the future affects a couple’s current fertility. The first stage model is a logit model which examines the decision of whether or not to have any children, and then in the second stage a Poisson model is applied to explain the number of children a couple has conditional on the couple having at least one child. The empirical evidence presented suggests that there are strong generational effects, and that for the post-war cohort, the probability of having to look after a parent increases the probability of couples being childless. On the other hand, the older generation reacts in the opposite direction by increasing their family size.
The presentation will be given in English and start at 6.30 pm.
Everybody is welcome to attend, but kindly asked to register with busi.econ-studygroup(at)dijtokyo.org
